⦾ Israel and Iran at cross-roads again after Oct 1, 2024
⦾ Oil and Gold provide the much safe haven
⦾ Many seeing this as a buy on dips opportunity
⦾ Bull run begins but the perils of Stage 2A volatility continues
Global Markets
YTD Performance
Jerk yet but is a Jolt coming ? Looks like a small jerk to the markets, next week we’ll know if its going to be a jolt ?
3-Macros
$₹ / Gold / Oil
We look at the 3 Macros that affect Indian market viz., $₹ / Gold / Oil
USD/₹ : getting into new high ground
Gold : looks like soon to hit ATH
Oil : middle east crisis take it above $73, increase of 8% in one day
India does not directly import large volumes of oil from Iran. However, 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is located between Iran to the north and the Arabian Peninsula to the south.
Any disruption around the Strait of Hormuz may affect oil shipments coming from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE who are key suppliers for India.
The Market
CNX500
Indian economy currently is resilient and RBI has boosted borrowing by cutting rates however Iran-Israel conflict impacts India to a great extent.
RBI may have to pullback this rate-cut as inflation will go up with rising oil prices and the war will also impact the INR.
Cautious next week unless Trump does a Houdini (once again) and makes an announcement from his X account of a ceasefire.
We’re in a 10,000 point massive Flag & Pole.
Market Breadth
New Highs / New Lows
We’re back at the zero line, let’s see if we go on to the negative side next week as market breadth looks weakening.
Sectoral Analysis
Performance and RS
We compare YTD-RS vs 3M-RS to check sector rotation in market
YTD Basis : Finance, Pvtbanks, Metals
3M Basis : Realty, Psubanks, Media
Active Investment ideas for next week
Market is now in Stage 2A and heading for ATH post which it will be in Stage 2 uptrend
The current conflict in Middle East restricts us from taking new positions.
Infact if the situation worsens, its better to go into 100% cash till the situation de-escalates.
Leave a Reply