⦾ India-Pak ceasefire…for now

⦾ Sell in May and go away – what’s the fate of short sellers on Monday?

⦾ Will China-US tariff war also ceasefire?

⦾ Can a war ceasefire be considered as a “MAJOR BUY SIGNAL” ?

---

Global Markets

YTD Performance

Global markets seem to be resilient to Trump Tariffs….90 days tariff pause ends on 31/7/2025

3-Macros

$₹ / Gold / Oil

We look at the 3 Macros that affect Indian market viz., $₹ / Gold / Oil

USD/₹ : rejected once again at 50dma

Gold : still consolidating

Oil : lives below the 10wma

The Market

CNX500

Back up from Monday ? Ceasefire will have its effect…

We are still below the 200dma…volatility will remain high but the Tape also tells that we’re in a 10,000 point massive Flag & Pole

Market Breadth

New Highs / New Lows

Broader market remains weak…let’s see if we can get a week of +ve figures now

---

Sectoral Analysis

Performance and RS

We compare YTD-RS vs 3M-RS to check sector rotation in market

YTD Basis : Finance, Pvtbanks, Oil&Gas

3M Basis : Finance, Pvtbanks, Oil&Gas

---

Active Investment ideas for next week

NONE

Market is in the choppy “Stage 3” where money is lost in both longs and shorts. Sit on the sidelines is what the tape is telling us.

Your job as an investor is to find the next apple and handle it well.